Analysis for AVIC Chengdu Aircraft

Technical picture

Overall, the technical picture is still weak and under pressure. Performance is currently doing more of the work than stability, with sub-scores of 42 for performance, 15 for stability and 23 for trend. The time-horizon picture is mixed, so the headline score is cleaner than the underlying path.

Even in this weaker setup, there is at least one stabilizing piece. The current drawdown sits around 38.0 %, so the picture is weak, but not completely unanchored.

The clearest drag is that price is still below important moving averages. It sits at -12.7 % versus SMA50 and -19.7 % versus SMA200, which points to ongoing technical pressure.

The next key change would be a recovery back above the main moving averages. That would suggest the technical pressure is easing rather than merely slowing.

Current market backdrop

The backdrop is improving on inflation, but not yet on financing conditions. Price pressure is cooling, yet rates still remain high enough to matter.

US 10-year yields remain elevated at 4.35%.

Inflation is cooling, with headline and core readings around 2.4% and 2.5%.

US inflation-adjusted 10-year yields are still high at 1.99%.

In plain language, the inflation trend is moving in a better direction, but financing conditions are not easy yet. That often means the macro picture improves faster than policy relief arrives.

The ISM business activity gauge are currently unavailable or too stale to use, so this is a narrower macro read than usual.

What that means for this asset

For stocks, the rate side matters because higher real or long-term yields raise the hurdle rate for future cash flows and make safer fixed-income alternatives more competitive.

At the moment, the macro environment and the chart are leaning the same cautious way. The backdrop is not offering much help to a setup that is already weak.

In plain terms, this is a weak setup with little macro help, so the current reading deserves caution rather than enthusiasm.