Analysis for United States Oil Fund
Description & usage
The United States Oil Fund provides WTI crude-oil exposure through futures rather than physical holdings. Returns depend not only on spot-price moves but also on roll yield and futures-curve structure. Key drivers include OPEC policy, inventory data, geopolitical events, and global demand trends.
Basic info
- Symbol
- USO
- Type
- ETF
- Region
- US
- Sector
- Commodities
- Available history
- 11.2 years
- Last trading day
- 04/02/2026
- TER
- –
Basic info
- Symbol
- USO
- Type
- ETF
- Region
- US
- Sector
- Commodities
- Available history
- 11.2 years
- Last trading day
- 04/02/2026
- TER
- –
Market context
- DXY
- 120.89
- US 10Y Real
- 1.99%
- Fed Balance
- $6.68T
- CPI YoY
- 2.4%
- Fed Rate
- 3.75%
- US 10Y
- 4.35%
- VIX
- 24.54
- HY OAS
- 3.17%
- Brent
- $121.88
- Core CPI
- 2.5%
- US 2Y
- 3.84%
- ISM PMI
- –
Score overview
The overall score combines Performance, Stability and Trend into one comparable value.
Market context
- DXY
- 120.89
- US 10Y Real
- 1.99%
- Fed Balance
- $6.68T
- CPI YoY
- 2.4%
- Fed Rate
- 3.75%
- US 10Y
- 4.35%
- VIX
- 24.54
- HY OAS
- 3.17%
- Brent
- $121.88
- Core CPI
- 2.5%
- US 2Y
- 3.84%
- ISM PMI
- –
Analysis summary
Technical asset picture
United States Oil Fund (USO) currently has a total score of 67 points, placing it in the strong range. The score is made up of Performance (69), Stability (48) and Trend (89). The profile is clearly uneven: Trend stands out while Stability is more neutral.
Performance scores 69 points (strong). Key strength: 1Y return at 78.9 %. Even the weakest return is still strong in absolute terms: 10Y return at 71.4 %. This points to a sharper upswing more recently.
Stability scores 48 points (neutral). Key strength: Sortino ratio (90d) at 7.19. Weaker metric: max drawdown (10Y) at -89.8 %. That indicates very deep historical drawdowns. Higher Stability points are better and typically reflect calmer swings and smaller drawdowns-but prices can still fall.
Trend scores 89 points (very strong). Key strength: Price is about 45.3 % above SMA50. Main drag: relative strength (12M) at -0.7 %.
Overall, the profile has a clear strength in Trend, while Stability is the main limiter. On a metric level, Sortino ratio (90d) stands out, while max drawdown (10Y) is the main weak spot.
Current market backdrop
The backdrop currently looks mixed and rather restrictive.
A strong US dollar currently paints a mixed risk picture.
High US real yields and elevated long yields lean toward a restrictive rate backdrop.
What that typically means here
For energy and oil-linked assets, higher Brent typically leans supportive.
Note: ISM PMI was not used actively in the effect logic.
Historical evaluation and qualitative market context only, not investment advice.
Price chart
Use the chart to read recent price behavior before drilling into metrics.
Scores and metrics
Explore the overall score, the three pillar scores, and the metrics behind them.